Thesis
Utilizing Greenland as a case study, our project investigates data projections on a variety of coastal countries to analyze the effects of glacial melting and consequent sea level rise on global populations, land area, and economic productivity within GDP, while simultaneously exploring, through a comprehensive literature review, the relationship between these primary impacts and their secondary manifestations in public health, specifically mental well-being and physical health.
Introduction
Concerns about climate change and the effect humans have on rising global temperatures have grown significantly in recent years. As global temperatures rise, glacial melting has led to a steady decline in global ice sheet mass and a corresponding rise in global sea levels. For instance, Greenland, which contains a significant portion of the global ice mass, has experienced coastal warming of around 1.7 degrees Celsius in the past 30 years. Projections suggest that this warming in Greenland alone could contribute to a sea level rise of between 8-27 centimeters by the year 2100. To investigate the relationship between these rising sea levels and human populations around the world, especially in coastal areas, we used two datasets. Our analysis combines temperature data from Berkeley Earth, which documents warming trends since 1750, with World Bank Group projections that model sea level rise scenarios and their impact on coastal populations across 84 developing countries. The data reveals that sea level rise poses a threat of displacing millions and negatively affecting economic growth, especially in low-lying nations like Bangladesh, Vietnam, and The Bahamas. By examining these datasets together, we demonstrate that if warming trends continue as they have in recent years, there will be severe economic and social consequences in a number of coastal regions, highlighting the urgent need for climate reform and global emissions reduction.
In recent research, scientists generally agree that climate change is already impacting human health and will continue to do so, possibly getting worse over time. The health impacts are wide-ranging, including increased heat-related illnesses, changes in infectious disease patterns, respiratory and cardiovascular problems, mental health issues, malnutrition, and injuries from extreme weather events.
Climate change poses significant challenges to human well-being and economic stability, with far-reaching implications for GDP and societal inequalities. Certain populations, such as children, the elderly, those who work in coastal regions, and those in developing countries are disproportionately affected. Beyond economic consequences, climate change also negatively impacts mental health, with extreme weather events inducing anxiety, depression, and PTSD, particularly in marginalized communities. However mental health is a fairly new topic of discussion in certain communities and the effects that climate change can have are often less known. While there is strong consensus on the overall health threats posed by climate change, some contradictions exist regarding the magnitude of specific impacts in different regions. Additionally, there has recently been debate about the existence of climate change as a concept but this was not seen in most scholarly sources. Often, the exploration of climate change and mental health with regards to GDP is not often studied and our dataset will look further into the exploration of this topic.
As a growing society, the importance of keeping our one and only home safe has exponentially increased in recent years. Despite movements of awareness and advocacy, there has been minimal significant development towards any of the milestones set in terms of mitigating climate change. As a result, our project attempts to fill in the void left by many diplomats and governments who have failed to present adequate information towards the effects climate change has already produced in recent decades.
Our goal is to provide a sophisticated report in which we analyze not only statistical data but also take into account the mental and physical effects on humans. Through the process of narrowing down sources and literature, we noticed that there was a common gap: the personal and intimate struggles an individual experiences at the fault of climate change. Focusing our project on the humanistic effect of this ongoing phenomenon, we have dedicated ourselves to finding information that reveals the deeper reality of sea level rise and global warming. Every region holds its particular differences but there seems to be an overall relationship between climate change and the population impact. Being able to interpret and present these relations through a narrative in which we provide statistical data and a proper analysis, our audience will be exposed to the harsh reality of climate change and either begin believing that change is needed or even become part of that change itself. Our research provides both a visual and textual interpretation compared to other sources that have lacked this accessibility to a non-academic audience. Therefore, our analysis extends beyond the academic spectrum into communities and audiences that have yet to understand the cruciality behind becoming a factor towards this change.
Global Impacts
As described within the article, “Global Probabilistic Projections of Extreme Sea Levels Show Intensification of Coastal Flood Hazard”, the rate of floods within coastal regions has begun to erupt, creating social agony. Not only have individuals been at risk of losing their life as a result of the flooding, there have also been financial burdens such as the loss of homes and land. Suffering these losses creates an impact toward mental health that has only recently become noticeable within society. There is a greater need for therapy after drastic events such as floods or hurricanes, which all stem from these rising temperatures.
Rising temperatures directly cause melting ice caps, and in turn, rising sea levels. Rising sea levels in our future will have catastrophic repercussions for coastal communities across the world. To see which regions will be the most affected, view the following bar charts.
Regional Impacts of 1 vs. 5 meters of Sea-Level Rise on Land, GDP, and Population
The bar chart above was constructed in Tableau using the Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise dataset. It outlines the impacts of 1 meter of future sea level rise based on the percentage of a region’s area, GDP, and population impacted.
This bar chart was also constructed in Tableau using the same Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise dataset. It has the same format as the previous visualization, but illustrates the percentage of a region’s area, GDP, and population impacted for 5 meters of potential sea level rise.
In these two visualizations we are able to use a multi-bar bar chart to see three different percentages compared to one another. We used a bar graph because it is best at comparing data across categories according to Tableau. They are shown for six global areas and the two different visualizations compare the impacts for 1 meter of sea level rise and 5 meters of sea level rise. Having both the 1 meter and 5 meter allows researchers to better understand which areas of the world are most affected at each standard and in what areas. From there we can better understand how these different categories of percentages tell a humanistic story and how we can use this information and data to observe the effects on humans in these areas. When looking at the first visualization we can see that with 1 meter of potential sea level rise the most affected percent of population is in the Middle East & Northern Africa but the most percentage area affected and GDP percentage affected is in East Asia. Within the 5 meters of potential sea level rise visualization we can see a shift to all three of the percentages being compared are highest in East Asia. We also see a general rise in all of the numbers across the board which is also important.
In regards to area impacted, sea level rise at both the 1 and 5 meter levels can lead to loss of land which in turn can result in feelings of loss of culture and disruptions to different people’s sense of place within their geographic location. Additionally, the loss of area available can lead to displacement which can place mental hardship on the families and communities.
Additionally, population percentage impact is a statistic that directly helps frame the humanistic narrative of this dataset very clearly. In relation to area affected, population displacement due to loss of land can create displaced societies with a loss of connection to homeland and culture. Populations in different areas being more or less affected tells us something about the populations in that area. For example, one reason why Northern Africa might be more affected than Asia with 1 meter of sea level rise is because of how much of the population lives in coastal communities. This sparks more humanitarian based conversations and forces researchers to untwine the narrative and look at those in areas that have historically been silenced in regards to global climate change.
Finally, GDP is a metric used to determine a country’s economic performance, with sea level rise large portions of GDP are affected. Understanding which areas of the world are most affected allows researchers to better understand the macro idea of inequalities in certain areas and how disproportionate the effects of sea level rise will have on certain geographic areas versus others. It also allows us to look on a more microscale at the job loss and financial hardship that even a small percentage decrease in percent GDP can have on a community.
Impacts of 5 Meters of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Countries
To see the impacts of 5 meters of sea level rise on each individual country in the dataset, view the following visualization. (Scroll through the visualization using the horizontal scroll bar beneath the visualization)
The visualization above was created in Tableau using the Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise dataset. It conveys the same information as the regional bar charts, but will information regarding each of the 84 nations in the dataset. As we can see by scrolling through the countries, The Bahamas, Guyana, Suriname, and Vietnam will suffer the most from rising sea levels.
Impacts of 5 Meters of Sea-Level Rise on the GDPs of Coastal Countries
To visualize the impacted GDP’s of the countries in the dataset, refer to the following map.
This map was created in Tableau using the Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise dataset. It portrays the percentage of GDP impacted by 5 meters of potential sea level rise for many countries around the world.
This map provides a global perspective on the economic vulnerability of various nations to significant sea level rise. A clear pattern emerges, with coastal and low-lying nations in Asia, Africa, and parts of South America appearing to be the most affected. Countries like Vietnam, Mozambique, and Suriname show a significant percentage of their GDP potentially at risk, reflecting the reliance of these economies on coastal activities and infrastructure. These communities not only face the prospect of substantial economic losses but also the very real threats of displacement, job loss, and heightened vulnerability to mental health challenges due to the existential impacts of climate change.
These findings are further supported by localized research, such as the study “Estimating Recent Local Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Current Real-Estate Losses,” which focuses on Miami-Dade County. This document estimates a real-estate market loss exceeding $465 million between 2005 and 2016 due to flooding risks, underscoring the direct economic implications of rising seas. Extrapolated globally, these types of losses suggest profound impacts on the GDP of countries with similar vulnerabilities.
Impacts of 5 Meters of Sea-Level Rise on the Populations of Coastal Countries
To analyze the proportions of populations impacted by sea level rise around the world, we created the following visualization.
This global map was created in Tableau using the Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise dataset.
The map provides information on which countries would be most affected by a sea level rise of 5 meters. In particular, it examines the percentage of the population who would be displaced in each country, ranging from 0.07% to 55.77%. There are several key narratives that emerge from this examination. In Asia, regions such as Vietnam, China, and South Asia with densely populated coastal cities are the most heavily affected, while in Northern Africa and South America there are a number of countries who have a large portion of the population in coastal and low-altitude areas. The map also shows a disproportionate impact towards developing countries with less coastal protection infrastructure, especially in Asia and Africa, which highlights the need for international cooperation. With the displacement of large portions of populations comes a significant amount of potential economic disruption, including loss of major coastal industries, ports, and even refineries and power plants. These effects could deeply impact the lives of millions of people, even those not located on the coast, and this map helps to illustrate the human element involved in sea level rise.
Conclusion
Our narrative emphasizes the consequences of glacial melting and sea-level rise on coastal populations, land, and GDP. Greenland’s warming trends exemplify how rising temperatures accelerate glacial melting, contributing significantly to global sea-level rise. With various data visualizations that we created from datasets projecting the impacts of rising sea levels, we connect primary impacts, such as displacement and economic loss, to secondary effects, like mental health struggles. Vulnerable groups, such as coastal populations in developing nations, are already experiencing displacement, cultural loss, and economic instability at the hands of rising sea levels. These impacts are projected to grow proportionately with rising sea levels. Our data visualizations also reveal disproportionate risks to developing nations in Asia, Africa, and South America, which likely correlate to average land elevation, economic stability, and population size.
We seek to use this project as a means of showcasing the connection between climate change and human health, economic stability, and cultural identity. By highlighting the environmental challenges that await us and their humanistic implications, we urge readers to consider the physical and psychological impacts of rising sea levels and to take action.